Synopsis: An obvious choice for No.1? Maybe. An easy choice? Certainly not. Smith’s rookie year on the WCT was far from Earth-shattering, but its merits cannot be completely discarded either. He finished in 26th in the world, despite having a “shocker.” Competition aside, Smith’s media coverage was overwhelming and somewhat expected based on the hype he had chasing him into 2008. His editorial coverage last year was the most for any surfer in the world. To top it off, his video performances in Stranger Than Fiction, and The Life, among others, serve as evidence that he’s the best, most mature surfer in the Hot 100.

Variables: As we saw in 2008, Jordy is not immune to the pressures of life on tour. The physical changes in his body added another layer of concern, which translated into equipment problems and a subsequent lack of confidence. These concerns seemed to ease toward the end of 2008, but he’ll need to remain focused if he wants to reach the lofty expectations that have been placed on him.

Forecast: Jordy has done a lot of growing up over the past year, but the fact that his career is so far advanced compared to the other guys competing for the No.1 position on the Hot 100 makes him a natural fit. Although he’s done a lot of growing up over the past year, the work he put into refining his equipment, his image, his competitive strategy, and his fitness levels should translate into even more success in 2009. For now, though, based on all the evidence out there, Jordy’s still the man to beat.